The Paradox of life: A prespective

While going through a book written over predictive analysis. I was forced to think is it really possible to predict the outcome of the event.

let me explain my thought in a most simple way. Please be patient, it may take a while for you to understand the essence.

All of us had studies the Newtons law of gravitation which states that "The gravitational force acting between two bodies with a finite mass is directly proportional to product of their mass and inversely proportional to distance between them"

Why I state this law, you will understand in due cource of this article.

coming to the point, So ask your self is it really possible to predict the outcome of the event?

Lets Have a look at some interesting phenomenon.

Gravitational force is the weakest force possible in this universe, it is propagated by a particle called Gluon, which travel by the speed of light. The most noticeable thing is though the force is weak but the effect is profound. The weakest force has a major role in defining the structure of universe? It is the effect of the small changes which makes the big things possible? or is it just reverse of it?

What I want to convey is while predicting anything we forget to take the incremental nature of error into our account.(or incremental Nature of Force) a prediction which may be accurate for a month, can be wrong by 1000% for a year, because we can't take all the variables in to measure.

Lets say that we are facing the error of 10 %  of result , lets say we have predicted our money into a venture who assure us to give the 200% of investment at every 10th day with a impassibility of 10% error. and lets take a worse case scenario that company delivered at loss of 10% every time for 100 days and we have prediction of getting 2000 rs on 100th day.

but we get only

so at 10th day : 180  (Planned: 200) cumulative error : 20%

20th day : 340 (Planned: 400) cumulative error :    40%

30th day : 480   (Planned : 600) cumulative error : 60%

40th Day :  600   (Planned : 800) cumulative error : 80%

50Th day :  700 (planned : 1000) cumulative error : 100%

60th day :  780   (Planned : 1200) cumulative error : 120%

70th day :  840   (Planned : 1400) cumulative error : 140%

80th day :  880   ( Planned : 1600) cumulative error : 160%

90th day :   900  (Planned : 1800) cumulative error : 180%

100th day : 900 (Planned : 2000)   cumulative error : 200%

so commulative error which is just 10 Percent of the result become so large that it neutralize the output. and afterword 100th day you actually start loosing, which is what happens if we try to generalize the prediction of ours, because we actually cant include everything in our calculation, but knowledge is limited, logic is weak.

So the best way is to keep away from people who try to give a accurate forcast of your money. Cause they are too ignorant to know that their knowledge is not competent enough in this case.

gravitational force if seen in isolation is nothing, but when it works in universe it produce unraveled effect in the structure of universe. this simple law is perfect example of the uncertainty in the projection of the nin linear world.

If any error comes into the picture in the law, then it is exponented to its power 4, which if summed for a period of million year can yeild a alltogether different results.

Which is my central point that, though we predict, and will continue to predict; there is a element of uncertainty which is called as  error in the calculation because we cannot take account of every input which affect the system.

This simplification makes our prediction uncertain and hence, our prediction starts becoming more and more wrong.

By this I am not saying that we should stop doing what we are doing its just that we should refrain from genralizing the things are are lots of example of this concept.
If you wish i can wrote more on this.

Till then Happy time :)

SID-JAY